Latest UK Inflation Data, News & Analysis

APRIL Inflation 2.4%

Mervyn King

The April CPI Annual Inflation Rate was 2.4%.

TheApril CPI annual inflation rate was 2.4%  down from 2.8% in March 2013.

This was the first fall in the index for six months, the fall came from sharp reductions in fuel prices, although food prices continued upward. 

The April CPIH Measure of  Inflation was 2.6%

CPIH has replaced RPI  as the measure of consumer price inflation, which includes owner occupiers’ housing costs. In April this new rate was 2.2%, down from 2.6% in March

Inflation Outlook

Bank of England Governor Sir Mervyn King stated last week that a recovery in the economy was finally “in sight” as the Bank  revised it’s growth forecast upward for the first time since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008. Was this just the wishful sentiments of an outgoing governor, or a word from the wise? Perhaps a bit of both according to John Gough at UK Inflation.

“Growth can hardly be hailed as spectacular at 0.3%, and if the proceeds from switching back on North Sea oil flows following maintenance were excluded, the economy  would have been as flat as a pancake. What is not so flat is inflation which is now still romping ahead of a record low wage growth of 0.4%. In the private sector there is virtually no growth in wages, so despite the fall in inflation, consumers are sill feeling worse off. Food inflation is growing at 5%, and consumers will be concerned where this is heading, if it costs £1.40 to but one leak in Waitrose.”

In the Telegraph, Samuel Tombs, UK economist at Capital Economics, said: “Inflation still looks set to climb again in the coming months as we reach the anniversary of a period of falling petrol prices and deep discounting on the high street. However, the peak, probably in June, could now be closer to 3pc than the 3.5pc we had expected beforehand”.

At This is Money.co.uk, James Knightley, economist at ING Bank, said: ‘We may see headline inflation rise modestly again in the next couple of months as sharp falls in petrol prices last summer drop out of the annual comparison, but we agree with the Bank of England that the trend will be downwards thereafter.

‘Moreover, with wage growth being so low at just 0.4 and inflation expectations remaining contained, there appears to be very little threat of a wage-price spiral in the UK’

The Ernst & Young ITEM Club forecast that UK inflation would settle at 2.6pc in 2014 and 2015 rather than fall back to 2pc by early 2015, as the Bank of England has predicted.

The bottom line is that despite a flat lining economy with no wage growth inflation remains stubonly above the 2% target rate. The test however will be that, as growth slowly recovers how much ordinary wage earners will actually benefit.

DECEMBER Inflation 2.7%

Vegetables

  The December CPI Annual Inflation Rate was 2.7%. The December CPI annual inflation rate was 2.7%  unchanged from November. This is the third month in a row that the inflation rate has remained at 2.7%. The index has been essentially flat … [Continue reading]

MARCH Inflation 2.8%

petrol pump

The March CPI Annual Inflation Rate was 2.8%. The March CPI annual inflation rate was 2.8%  the same as in February 2013. The index has remained steady at 2.7% for four months, and then 2.8% for February and March. The increases came from … [Continue reading]

FEBRUARY Inflation 2.8%

Cabbages

The February CPI Annual Inflation Rate was 2.8%. The February CPI annual inflation rate was 2.8%  up marginally from January. The index has remained steady at around 2.5% - 3%  for five months now. The increases came from increasing domestic … [Continue reading]

JANUARY Inflation 2.7%

Supermarkets-accused-of-selling-beer-for-less-than-water_dnm_large

The January CPI Annual Inflation Rate was 2.7%. The January CPI annual inflation rate was 2.7%  unchanged from December. This is the fourth month in a row that the inflation rate has remained at 2.7%. The index has been steady since Spring … [Continue reading]

Petrol Prices About to Rise

UK Inflation Indicator UP   Petrol prices are set to rise by up to four pence a litre in the next few days, retailers have predicted. The rise was forecast by the Petrol Retailers Association (PRA), and would add around £2 to the cost of … [Continue reading]

No Change to Measure of Inflation

RPI to stay rather than confuse with an additional measure of inflation. Better a consistent measure than a more accurate measure. There will be no change to the way the retail prices index is calculated, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has … [Continue reading]

NOVEMBER Inflation 2.7%

Inflation remains high despite High St discounting

The November CPI Annual Inflation Rate was 2.7%. The November CPI annual inflation rate was 2.7%  unchanged from October. The trend is now flat lining following the record three year low of 2.2 per cent recorded in September. The rise in … [Continue reading]

OCTOBER Inflation 2.7%

Recession remains but inflation on the increase.

The October CPI Annual Inflation Rate was 2.7%. The October CPI annual inflation rate was 2.7% down from 2.2% in September. This is a reversal in the downward trend and represents a five-month high compared with the record three year low of 2.2 … [Continue reading]

Retail Sales Bounce

UK Inflation Indicator: UP Hopes that the UK economy is on the mend were boosted on Tuesday when the latest snapshot of high street spending showed strong growth in retail sales. The CBI's monthly distributive trades survey showed consumers … [Continue reading]